itunes store. back next sunday for another critical look at the meet i can't. "state of the union" with candy crowley begins right now. the most expensive campaign in history yields tuesday to the priceless power of the vote. today four more years or time for a change? november 6th we're going to come together all across the country for a better future. on november 7th we're going to go to work. >> we've come too far to turn back now. it's time to keep pushing forward. >> the last two days of an endless campaign with chicago mayor and former obama chief of staff rahm emanuel. and romney supporter ohio senator rob portman. 33 senate seats, 435 house seats and one presidency. an election extravaganza with former mississippi governor haley barbour and cnn's dana bash. i'm candy crowley. this is "state of the union."

they are ships passing in the night and the day. this day mitt romney will be in iowa, ohio, pennsylvania, and virginia, while the president heads to new hampshire, south of florida, back up north to ohio, out west to colorado. monday romney goes to florida, virginia, ohio, and new hampshire. obama counters with wisconsin, ohio, and a closing rally in iowa. the biggest surprise in that final 48 hours is romney's last minute bid in pennsylvania. polls in the state favor president obama, but not by as much as they once did. the romney campaign calls it expanding the electoral map. the obama campaign calls it a fairy tale. welcome to the parallel universe phase of the campaign. joining me is chicago mayor and former white house chief of staff rahm emanuel. let me start by showing a poll out of pennsylvania showing that

the president's numbers have been slipping since september, and it's now looking like a four-point race in pennsylvania, which is inside the margin of error. are you all worried about that? >> no. i think, look, the campaign is set, and i think people remember going into this election are jobs and you just had a report friday of 171,000 jobs were created, and, candy, i think when i saw that number the fact back to january, 2009 when the president first got elected we got the report within ten days about his election, which is on the january numbers. we showed 839, 840,000 jobs lost. now we're 171,000 jobs gain. that's a million job swing in the right direction, and i think people know it's no time to go backwards and no time to go to the policy that is led us into the ditch. it's been a hard fought four years to finally get to 171,000 jobs gain. to get retail sales moving better than expected.

home prices and home construction are moving faster in the right direction. the engine for economic growth is happening, and i think people in pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, rust belt, middle of america, know that the press's policies are finally starting to pay off, and this is not the time to stop on them. they need to press forward on the policies -- >> if they bought into that, then why have these polls slipped in pennsylvania, do you think? >> well, look, from that poll i don't know -- i've seen other polls that have the president in a comfortable margin on particulars, but it comes down to a four-letter word, my favorite one, jobs. the president's policies are actually producing the types of jobs and economic growth. not at the pace he wants and the policies he has for going forward. it's about building on the middle class and not short-chasing them like mitt romney would do. they can own a home and have a good job, save for their kids' college education, and not be one illness away from bankruptcy, and make sure they have a secure retirement. if you do those four things that have strategies for the best of

that, you have a strong middle class. if you have a strong middle class, you will have a vibrant and healthy economy. >> let me try one more time here. we know that the vice president, his wife, joe biden, has been sent to pennsylvania doing a couple of early weekend stops. we know that bill clinton, who is one of your biggest assets, as you know, is being used in pennsylvania on monday. it tells me that you all are a little worried about that or worried about the race in general. are you saying no? >> candy, it is a close election. it is a close election. nail everything down. c, i think pennsylvania is secure, but you don't take anything for granted, and that's why a lot of people will be going back to ohio in the next 96 hours multiple times, pennsylvania. that doesn't mean it's slipping. it just means natural tightening of the race and means the national race and the president is in a strong position because of the policies. >> it seems really clear to you.

as you point out, it's a pretty close election, and one of the things that has come up has been what went on in benghazi. i want to play you something rudy giuliani said. >> you know that what happened in libya is the result at least of incompetence. do you think if we had elected john mccain in the president of the united states those people wouldn't have had the full resources of the united states of america there in benghazi trying to save them? >> the storyline here is that we still don't know what went on in benghazi. the president has said time and again, has said at least once that this is under investigation, but the president knows what he knew. he knows when he was first told about that. is it a mistake for him not to say, look, here's what i know, here's what went on in the white house, here's when i found out about it? why not put some information out there? >> candy, first of all, on this and in the larger porn policy,

and let me just address what rudy giuliani just said. you know, two wars, and one of the them in the longest of the american history. we have ended our presence in iraq and brought americans home, started investing here at home and not in iraq. >> basically on benghazi. >> on benghazi also the president has done exactly what a president should do. i want to report an investigation of what happened. i want to know who is responsible, and we're going to bring them to justice just like he did with osama bin laden, and that is exactly also what he pledged to do in the campaign of 2008, and he did it, he is a man of his word, and he showed the leadership, even when people said don't go try to spend everything you can to get osama bin laden. the president said i will go, and i will even go to pakistan to do it, and he was right, benghazi, let's not politicize this. get the investigation done. let the chips fall where they may. find who is accountable. bring them to justice. a mistake, if it was made in any other agency, then you fix it, and that's what leadership is. it's not trying to point fingers.

it's trying to get to the bottom of something. >> i want to ask you something about what's going on with the house of representatives. when you left there, it was a democratic majority. you had a lot to do with that yourself, recruiting candidates, et cetera. then you lost the majority in the house, and it now looks as though the democrats are not going to be able to reclaim that majority this year. what is happening to house democrats? >> well, first of all, i'm not ready to -- i think all these elections are right on a bubble. i can see it here in the greater chicago area. we have about four races that are, you know, nip and tuck. one of them is clear. they are nip and tuck. i would not be ready to -- i don't know all the races. i don't study it like i used to. all the races. if you look at the house and senate, i think the democrats are in a strong position in a number of senate races and a strong position in a number of house races. this election, the president

wins and electrics have consequences will determine a great sense on how we deal with strengthening social security and medicare, how we deal with tax reform to strengthen the middle class. and i think it's better to also have a congress and a senate that wants to reach bipartisan compromise with a president who wants to strengthen middle class, and i do think the consequences of an election matter on the contours of how you'll deal with all these challenges that are known in washington as the fiscal cliff, but to the rest of the country they're known about fairness to middle class families who are trying to basically have a tax code that works for them, rather than against them. health care and retirement security, and there will be reforms in changes. you also have to have a president that has the right values for the middle class, and i can go back to remembering what happened in 1996. we had a healthy debate. nine months later we had a balanced budget agreement, and

it was different because the president of the united states was able to lead, and i think with the house democrats, there are races throughout the country as there are in the senate, and i think they are very, very close, and i think on a close election there may be a little push where i think president strengthens. >> just two words. compatriot in arms, at least in this election. david axelrod said he is utterly confident of victory. are you? >> david is close to it, people know a basic core point. the president has shown the leadership over four years in tough times to move america through those difficult times to a different point than what the country was he inherited. >> chicago mayor, former white house chief of staff, rahm emanuel. thanks for joining us today. >> thanks, candy. mitt romney tries to squeeze out a victory at the heart of obama's midwest fire wall. >> ohio, you're probably going to decide the next president of the united states. >> romney right-hand man, ohio senator rob portman joins me next.

we'rwith questions fromtump sombing elections.kies do you know where your polling place is? maybe somewhere around my house. mine's just, right over that way. well you can find out exactly where it is using bing elections. it's a good day for politics. which way do you lean politically? conservative. republican. well, using the bing news selector you can find news from whichever way you lean. (together) social on this side, financial. which party is currently predicted to win a majority in the senate? the republicans? would you make a bet on that? no. are you chicken?

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joining me, ohio republican senator rob portman. thank you so much for being with

us, senator. let me start with exactly where you are, which is ohio. obviously this is the place to be in the final days of the campaign. what we had on friday was a jobs report showing strengthening in the number of hires. we had an increase in consumer confidence. you have in ohio a jobless rate that is better than the nationwide jobless rate and you have an auto bailout that the president put in place that's highly popular. what is it in this state that makes you think that president romney, sorry, governor romney can overcome those particular statistics and field the voters? >> i like your freudian slip on president romney. that sounded good. look, ohio's economy is not doing well, people don't feel it is doing well. our wrong track numbers polled constantly are as bad as the rest of the country. i think the jobs numbers last week were really disappointing.

i heard rahm emanuel bragging on them too. it showed the unemployment number going up, not down. in fact, unemployment is higher today than it was when president obama was sworn in. the real numbers, even worse, because as you know a lot of folks have left the workplace. instead of being 7.9%, it's 10% or more, and here in ohio it's a little lower than that when you add the folks back in, and it's almost 10% too. it's not going well here. i just got done with five events all around the state. in the last month i have been at events where i talk to folks about what's going on. they say look at the empty store fronts, factories with lost capacity. we've got serious head winds from washington it's not working. >> yet, senator -- yet, the president has -- yet, the president has been leading in polls in ohio. we are told in part because of the auto bailout that certainly the obama people have pushed very heavily on the air. again, what is it about the atmospherics out there that makes you think you can overcome what has been a steady, if small

lead for the president? >> well, first, all polls are in the right direction, so i'm happy about the polling. we had a poll come out today where we were nine points down, and now we're in the margin of error, two points. the reuters tracking has been done consistently. it's three or four points down. it's one point this morning. at this point of the campaign you like it going in your direction, i think we have a better grassroots effort, and i know we have the energy and enthusiasm on our side this year, so i feel good about ohio. it's very close. i agree with rahm emanuel that it's going to be a close race. i like the position we're in. we have momentum on our side. in terms of the auto bailout, you're right. there have been a lot of ads played about the auto bailout. they aren't accurate, and that's what has made it tough for us to explain to people. the more people know about what happened with the auto bailout, the more they're going to like mitt romney, and that's why we have ads explaining two things. simply, one, it was president obama who took the companies to bankruptcy, whereas the ads say mitt romney wanted to take them to bankruptcy. that's what he did. second, mitt romney did have a plan, and his plan did include federal assistance. i supported the package at the

time, but it's not accurate to say that governor romney did not have a rescue plan. he did. then, finally, it's governor romney's plans that are going to be best for our workers and auto companies and communities affected by it going forward because he is the guy for tax reform, for regulatory relief lowering the cost of energy and health care. all the things the auto companies want. >> while we're on the subject -- >> he thinks the -- >> while we're on the subject of advertisements, you all -- the mitt romney campaign has put up an ad that has been found by all the fact checking folks to be false. gm spokesman has come out and said, wait a second, this is not what's going on. the unions have bashed it, and it suggests in it that jeep production is going to be sent to china when, in fact, we're told nothing close to that is going to happen. one of the things the opposition said was, boy, you have been able to unite both corporate america and the unions in this false ad. why not take this one down?

>> well, first of all, the ad is accurate. bill clinton was in pennsylvania yesterday talking about it. >> you're the only folks that think it's accurate. you all are the only ones -- >> here's the situation. look, candy, it's not gm. it's chrysler, first of all. >> sorry. i'm sorry. >> jeep has said they're going to reopen a facility that was closed after daimlerchrysler, you know, broke apart years ago. it will be in china to produce for the chinese market, and that's all the ad says. there's nothing inaccurate about it. those jeeps are now being produced in america, and they're being exported to china in an asian market. >> the suggestion that the jobs are being exported has been denied by the auto companies. >> well, there's -- you know, that's a suggestion that you might want to make, but, you know, that's not what the ad said. i'm delighted chrysler is making an investment, and fiat is making an investment in ohio. i'm supportive of that. it's great if they want to expand production here. i hope they will. the fact is that we now are

proud to send to china. , to estaz wra. we export about 25% of what we make here, and so if you're going to start production facilities overseas, obviously we're going to lose some of our exports here. that's all the ad says. look, here's the big -- the thing about the auto industry attack ads that isn't true. mitt romney actually had a plan. now look, i supported a rescue at the time. there was no federal help in the romney plan, all the fact checkers looked at it, and all came up the same way, which was that president obama was wrong. he was not telling the truth. mitt romney had a plan. you can argue which plan was better, but both of them had a plan, and, again, to me if i'm an autoworker or i'm from the company in a management position, i want someone who is president who is going to put in place the tax reforms that they're all dying to have. i mean, they come to me as a u.s. senator and say, look, we have to have tax reform to be competitive. we've got to have lower energy costs and lower health care costs. we need regulatory relief and a level playing field. those are all the things that mitt romney has been talking about. not just recently, but for months in his campaign.

i think what he has got is a positive proactive approach for the economy, and that's going to make a difference in ohio. not just with auto companies and other manufacturers, but with folks who are frustrated with where we are. that tends to make a difference at the end of the day, and we'll see that in polling results. >> okay. let me ask you, i don't think we're going to get anywhere on the ad truthfulness or lack thereof. let me move you to hurricane sandy and something that karl rove, who as you know, was the architect of the bush campaign from the deputy white house chief of staff for george w. bush, and he said the washington post, "if you hadn't had the storm, there would have been more of a chance for the romney campaign to talk about the deficit, the debt, the economy. there was a stutter in the campaign. when you have attention drawn away to somewhere else, to something else, it is not to his -- meaning governor romney's -- advantage." do you think that hurricane sandy or superstorm sandy and the president's handling of it stopped mitt romney's momentum and helped the president? >> you know, i don't know. i can't judge that.

i have been here in ohio watching on tv some of the scenes, including on your network yesterday of people who are really frustrated, which is, you know, typical of the natural disaster like this. our hearts go out to those folks, but it's tough for government to be able to respond. i don't know how it plays honestly. i know that right now if you are in the northeast and without power and you can't get back to your home or you're stuck in your home, you know, you're frustrated, and that's understandable, and that's probably what most people are seeing on their tv sets these days. >> most people have said, look, here's the president being in command, looking presidential. it did turn the campaign conversation into a storm conversation. therefore, it would affect voters in ohio. you have seen no evidence of that? >> no. we really haven't. as i said, the polling is trending our direction and has continued to -- by the way, the president is on the campaign trail, and those folks in the northeast are having a tough time, so i am not sure anybody does, to be honest,

candy. >> finally, i want to read you something that the senate majority leader had to say. this was in the "national journal" on friday, and senator harry reid said, "romney's fantasy that senate democrats will work with him to pass his severely conservative agenda is laughable. mitt romney has demonstrated that he lacks the courage to stand up to the tea party cowtowing to their demands time and again. there is nothing in mitt romney's record to suggest that he would act any differently as president." would you like to respond to that? >> well, i think it goes to the point that mitt romney has been making on the campaign trail. you know, washington is broken. the partisan gridlock has to be broken. that's what he intends to do. he did it in massachusetts. he actually had a lot more democrats in the legislature there than we have in congress, even if we keep the status quo, and he said he is going to reach across the aisle and find common ground. to have that kind of response from the democrats in congress is discouraging, but, look, i think at the end of the day even harry reid and even the democrats who might take that

point of view at this point are going to say we've got to solve the problems. we have record debts and deficits that have to be dealt with. the economy is weak. it needs to be strengthened by pro-growth policies. everybody acknowledges that. i'm hopeful that those are just political comments made in the heat of the campaign and that once this election is over, i believe mitt romney is going to win ohio and, therefore, i think is likely to be our next president. >> it's dangerous for me -- it's dangerous for me to ask a senator for a one-word answer, but if i could, is there a way for governor romney to win this election without winning ohio? >> probably, but i wouldn't want to risk it. no republican ever has, and i think we're going to win ohio. i really do. >> all right. senator rob portman, thank you so much for joining us this morning. happy trails. >> thank you, candy. good to be with you. when we return president obama's closing message. trust the one you're with. >> you want to know that your president means what he says and says what he means.

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time for a check of today's

headlines. florida's democratic party filed a federal lawsuit to extend early voting hours. lawsuit argues that inadequate polling facilities in miami-dade, broward, and palm beach counties led to lines in some cases between six and seven hours long. over a million votes have already been cast in the bellweather state of ohio. ohio's swuf state says absentee voting and early in person voting has gone smoothly so far this year. absentee voting is on track to surpass 2008. house speaker john boehner is doing his part to get ohio voters out to the republican ticket. boehner has been on a three-day bus tour in his home state. the speaker says he is relying on long-time republicans in southwest ohio where he is from to deliver the state's 18 electoral votes from mitt romney. a new poll shows president obama leading mitt romney by five points in iowa.

the des moines register survey finds the president ahead of romney 47% to 42%. iowa, which is considered a part of the president's so-called midwest firewall, has just six electoral votes, but losing the state would complicate romney's path to victory. new jersey voters displaced by superstorm sandy will be able to cast their ballots by e-mail. the state is also allowing residents to vote at their county clerk's office. the deadline for ballots is 8:00 p.m. tuesday. and the new york board of elections decided to relocate or combine voting locations across five boroughs because of damage from sandy. the federal government is delivering 12 million gallons of unleaded gas and 10 million gallons of diesel to the northeast for areas hit by sandy. there had been long lines in new york and new jersey with drivers waiting for gasoline. new jersey governor chris christie said 70% of gas stations in the region were not operating yesterday in large part because of power outages.

and those are the headlines. campaign 2012 began a long time ago, but how will we know when it's over? >> it could be over before we even get to the central time zone. next up, we look at the last 48 hours of the campaign with former republican chairman haley barbour, democratic strategist and cnn's dana bash and gwen.

at meineke i have options... like oil changes starting at $19.95. my money. my choice. my meineke. cnn's dana bash, former mississippi governor and republican party chairman haley barbour, john kerry's campaign

manager, and gwen ifill. deputy campaign manager, and also long of the gephardt group. thank you for coming. i want to talk about two of the things that happened this week. one of them was the endorsement, sort of, of mayor bloomberg for president obama. who said in his endorsement like so many other independents i have found the past four years to be in a word disappointing. in 2008 obama ran as a pragmatic problem solver and consensus builder, but as president he devoted little time and effort to developing and sustaining a coalition of centrists which dooms hope for any real progress on illegal guns, immigration, tax reform, and deficit reduction. he engaged in partisan attacks and was debraced a populist agenda focused more on redistributing income than creating it. that was the endorsement for president obama. why did he do it? why did he endorse president obama? >> you'll have to ask him. certainly what you read is no endorsement. one reason independents are favoring romney in this election

and have for pretty well the whole time is because they feel exactly like mayor bloomberg is the job hasn't gotten done. you'll have to ask him why did he it. not me. maybe steve knows. >> maybe because you sat it out last time around, and in the -- it's not like he didn't have anything else to do because he has, you know, half his city was out of power. it just seemed peculiar timing and phrasing. >> if you heard what he said about mitt romney, he also had some critical things to say about mitt romney. i think the mayor endorsed him because he watched president obama during the aftermath of the hurricane and saw how important it was to have him continue to be president, and i think when you pair it with the colin powell endorsement and with the -- not quite endorsement of chris christie, but the time spent with chris christie, i think it was a good week for obama to show that people outside of the mainstream democratic party were moving towards him. >> you wouldn't have cared a bit about michael bloomberg. had he not had the week he had. what we know about him is he has gotten involved in putting a lot of money into races around the

country. he has an eye on his legacy. he knew he had the spotlight, and he knew he could at least be heard this week, and that's what he decided to say. >> what he said was he thinks that president obama is better on the issue of climate change and that the whole hurricane, the superstorm was a reminder of his perspective what's going on with the climate. >> and he also closed with a whole bunch of social issues. >> you know, candy, that wasn't the best thing that happened to barack obama this week. the hurricane is what broke romney's momentum. >> you think that as well? >> i don't think there's any question about it. any day the news media isn't talking about the jobs and economy, economy, taxes and spending, deficit and debt, obama care and energy, is a good day for barack obama. when you had a blackout, you had a blackout on all of those issues that started about last saturday and lasted until about yesterday. that is what really was good for barack obama. now, whether it will be good enough remains to be seen. >> right. >> i think it showed that barack obama had something to do. he had a job. he was commander in chief.

mitt romney, as any challenger in this situation, didn't really have anything to do and was out of the news. >> i don't know. i just find it hard to make that connection that you are sitting in ohio and watching the president tour with chris christie thinking, now i'm going vote for him? >> you know, i think you're probably right about that, but the other problem for mitt romney is that he felt the need, rightly so, to say that he wasn't campaigning. now, we know that he stayed put in ohio, mother of all battleground states. he didn't have an actual rally, but he had an event where they still played his video and he still had people out there, you know, listening to him talk about getting out food and aid to people out east, so he definitely couldn't talk for a few days about the things that the governor was talking about, the things that were making him -- that were propelling him in the polls. >> just one more thing on this, and everybody doesn't watch the news the way we do, but there was one juxtaposition which was important in this, and that was the day that president obama -- air force one drove up to the

podium with the presidential seal on it in wisconsin. he came bounding out of the plane wearing the bomber jacket that said air force one, and just before that we saw mitt romney wearing a blue suit speaking from a teleprompter giving a very effective and compelling closing argument speech, but you put those two things up against each other, and you see a campaigner versus a president and as the governor said, that will always help the incumbent. >> don't get me wrong. i don't think obama -- what obama did helped him a bit. what happened is the news media absolutely blacked out and it should be the issues of this campaign. if this election was held last friday, the last friday in october, romney would have won. if it would have been the last friday in september, obama would have won. if it would have been the last friday in august, it was about even. the last friday in july, obama would have won. nothing was stopping romney's momentum. no matter what obama did, he couldn't stop the momentum. this blackout -- i'm not blaming the news media. just all the news coverage was

about everything but obama's policies and the results of those policies. >> let me real quick play you something from the governor of new jersey that you said this week. >> the president of the united states and i have now had six conversations since sunday. that shows to me a level of caring and concern and interest that i think a leader should be giving to this type of situation. this was as comfortable and relaxed an interaction as i have had with the president since i have known him. >> for your taste, did he go a little overboard in this -- it wasn't an endorsement, but of this praise of the president. >> let me tell you as a guy who has been through more big disasters and dealt with -- >> katrina included. >> the relationship between the president, whether it's president obama or president romney, has just begun.

it's going to go on for years and years and years. the easy stuff is what we're dealing with now. the really complicated rebuilding, tough decisions, big authority of the federal government. christie would have been a fool to poke his finger in obama's eye. you know, your network criticized me after katrina for not criticizing bush, for not saying bush and him are doing a bad job. look, a, they did more right than wrong, but, b, when they're going to be your partner for years, you know, you praise in public and criticize in private. that's the way i was taught. >> did it seem -- he could have said the president did a great job. moving along now. but he did take some time. >> i think this is a very good week for barack obama because he did a good job. good government is good politics here. he did a good job. >> let's face it, there are still a lot of people in a lot of hurt without electricity who are still cold that can't get something, it hasn't been like okay, it's all done now. on the chris christie front, isn't there some sort of overwording of this?

>> i think there are some people who listen to chris christie's speech and thought it was more about him than about mitt romney, and i think there are those that watched chris christie this week and thought it was more about him than about mitt romney. that may say a lot more about chris christie than anything else. >> chris christie is the guy who just a couple of weeks ago was saying barack obama couldn't find a light switch in a dark room. no matter which way he goes, he always overwords. >> the checks will come to new jersey at any rate. when we return, minority leader nancy pelosi's september prediction for tuesday's election. >> we have a message. we have the messengers. we have money. we have mobilization, we have a very excellent chance to take back the house. >> is she going to get the speaker's gavel back. we'll ask our panel next.

no matter who ends up in the white house, he will have to deal with a u.s. congress that might look a lotto like the one that's there now. a democratic controlled senate and a republican-controlled house. it's been a recipe for showdown. >> we now know with absolute certainty that the only thing -- >> no, you don't. >> guarantee is -- >> no, you don't. >> mr. speaker, the house is not -- >> mr. speaker, the house is not -- >> no, you don't. >> mr. speaker. mr. speaker, the house will be

in order. >> former house speaker nancy pelosi has always been bullish about democrats winning back the house this year. the current speaker, republican john boehner, sees it a bit differently. >> i'm going to tell you what, nobody is going to get that gavel to "prime news" it out of my cold stone hand. >> doubtful boehner will have to fall on his sword, he has a 50-seat majority now and even many democrats say it's too high, and he will decline. once upon a time senate republican leader mitch mcconnell dreamed of a 2012 takeover in the senate, but right tirmt of maine republican olympia snowe and some inept and controversial remarks from republican senate candidates in missouri and indiana have changed the mix enough to suggest, but not guarantee, that democrats will hold on to the majority status. still, the thing about senate and house races is this. >> and thank you also to former governor and the next united states senator george allen.

>> then governor tim kaine. >> a strong showing by a presidential contender can bring home the close ones. the make-up of the next congress with our political panel when we come back.

we are back with dana bash, steve, and -- let me just set this up by saying does anyone want to argue that the democrats are going to take control of the house? >> not me. >> i would not underestimate nancy pelosi. there are a lot of disbelievers out there. >> that doesn't quite answer the -- >> not only that, but at this point democrats think that it's possible that they won't even get a net gain infantry seats. -- of any seats. it could be completely status quo. >> the reason i asked for a near unanimous vote here is that when we talked to folks in and around these races, they say they believe that the delegation that will show up, the republican delegation that will show up and will likely still number the majority will be more fiscally conservative than the last one. how does that bode for governance if president obama should win? take that first. >> i don't know that that's true. i will say i don't take anything for granted.

i have been around politics for a long time. what's going happen for the fiscal cliff or the sequestration and all that, rahm emanuel mentioned is the president going to lead, because it takes a president who leads, like bill clinton led, like ronald reagan led, to make a valid government work, and we're probably going to have divided government, we're certainly going to have divided government if barack obama is the president. is he going to lead for a change? >> now, that's an excellent point that you brought up because if you look at the number of races that is are really in play in the house, you have a number of conservative democrats and moderate republicans who are very likely to lose. it is hard for people out there to understand that this partisan house will be even more partisan. might not matter as much because the majority rules in the house. it's not like the senate, but it is going to be -- there are so few moderates left, it's stunning. >> let me ask you when you look at the totally, i think now most people think the democrats will hold on to the majority, if not necessarily the number that they have. are there races out there that have surprised you? >> well, if somebody told me at

the end of this cycle that the democratic delegate and the democrat in massachusetts and the democrat -- and even virginia would benefit because of the missteps of republicans in missouri and indiana, would i have said what are you talking about, because in lots of these cases it seemed early on that this was a done deal that democrats are going to win connecticut and massachusetts. it became clear as it went on that that was not a done deal. when this became an, oddly enough, senate debate about rape and its providence, and all of a sudden it leaked over into the assessment of republican candidates elsewhere in the country. that surprised me. >> i think two senate races surprised me. first ohio. that shared ground is in every poll, after outside groups spent over $20 million unanswered trial to defeat him shows that the candidates matter and how good a senator and politician you are and he's done a great job and he's going to win in a state that's going to be razor

thin on a presidential level and the wisconsin race is going to be a big surprise to people. i think everyone thought tommy thompson was going to waltz back in and tammy baldwin has put herself in a position where she could win. >> it matters who's on the top of the ticket, does it not? >> it does. it's interesting. i'm surprised that not only that the presidential races are close but the races that are close senatorial that are not even vaguely close at the presidential. i think about north dakota. i think about connecticut or massachusetts, or on the other side, montana. i don't remember that happening a lot unless you have some really, really strong incumbent. most of these are not incumbent. >> think about nebraska. >> nebraska has tightened up some. i would be surprised if we don't pick up nebraska. >> there are 16 races that we're looking at that a are

-- that are competitive. some obviously more than others. out of 33. and 23 are, you know, the states the democrats are trying to hold onto. but 16. that's a huge number of senate races. and so many of them are fascinating and so many too close to call like montana. that's the one that fascinates me. all told, they spent about $50 million. that goes a long way in montana. guess how much it's moved the dial? none, none. it was a 1% race before and now a 1% race. >> i've got a minute left so i need from all of you your shortest version of how will you know when you see those returns come back in that it's gone one way or another. >> i know it's a gimme, but ohio, that's how i know. >> if someone carries pennsylvania and ohio, it's over. if one person carries both. >> it's all about ohio. when you guys call ohio and maybe that will be thursday or friday, but when you call ohio, i will know. >> i will watch what's happening in colorado, in arizona. because i want to see -- and even in iowa.

because i want to see what happens with the latino vote. if it tips the ballot on states not on the front burner, that will tell us something about the future. >> senate going remain republican or go -- i'm sorry remain democratic or go republican? >> right now democrats have the edge. >> democrats will win the senate. >> close. >> close meaning -- >> likely but it's going depend on mitt romney. republicans think the only way they can win is if mitt romney wins aet the top. >> thank you, guys, so much. will it be an early call or an all-nighter? now stick around for signs that election 2012 is really over. [ male announcer ] can a car be built around a state of mind? ♪ announcing the all-new 2013 malibu from chevrolet. ♪ with a remarkable new interior featuring the available chevrolet mylink infotainment system. this is where sophisticated styling begins.

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and finally a four-letter word worth repeating, o-v-e-r. how will we know when it's over? >> one of the first things i look at are margins in the northern virginia suburbs of washington, d.c., especially prince william county. >> we need you, virginia. >> governor romney is ahead or at least in play there, it means that virginia is in play and we could have a long competitive night. if he's not in place, it could be over before we even get to the central time zone. >> if we win virginia, we will

win this election. >> i'm going to be in ohio on election night. >> that's an ohio welcome. thank you! >> i'm going to be watching to see how many people have turned in absentee ballots there. when people who ask for an absentee ballot and decided to go in person, their votes won't be counted until november 17 i'll be watching in ohio, which is where i'm right now but i'll also be keeping an eye on david axelrod. he's bet his moustache on the president winning m, minnesota, and pennsylvania. >> there are two things tell me the election is over. the first is when my bosses tell me when i can go home and that never happens and the second one is when we run out of doughnuts. >> i'll be watching four places in two states, cleveland, ohio, columbus, ohio, and then looking to florida along the i-4 corridor somewhere between orlando on a line all the way to tampa. what happens in the votes in those four places and in between, i think, determines the race.

>> the one thing i'll be watching is the exit polls which as everyone knows, they're never wrong. >> this is what i'm going to be watching to see if i have to be up all night. these are all the different ways in which the battleground states can come together to produce an electoral tie. >> i will think that this election is officially over when the senior lawyers for each campaign make vacation plans for thanksgiving. >> i'll tell you when we'll know it's all over. when candy tells us. >> all good reasons to watch cnn's election night coverage. it begins tuesday at 6:00 p.m. eastern. thank you for watching "state of the union." i'm candy crowley in washington. "fareed zakaria gps" is next for our viewers here in the united our viewers here in the united states. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com